The Greens - March and April Rental Market Review
The Greens rental market adjusts after late-February geopolitical shock.
Author Gareth Davies - Award Winning Broker and Property Consultant
The Greensโ rental market entered 2026 on a relatively strong footing, but the latest leasing data points to a clear downturn in both tenant activity and achieved rents from March onward. The timing coincides with the start of the USA-Israel/Iran conflict on 28 February 2026, followed by the reported ceasefire from 8 April 2026. However, unlike some other Dubai communities where sentiment appeared to improve after the ceasefire, The Greens did not show an immediate rebound in April.
New Tenancy Contracts to New Tenants (not renewals).
Data Source: Property Monitor & Ejari
Data Source: Property Monitor & Ejari
Based on the monthly summary data in the rental spreadsheet, The Greens recorded 61 new tenancy contracts in February 2026, with an average agreed rent of AED 124.57 per sq.ft. This was the highest average rent recorded in the period reviewed and suggested that pricing momentum was still positive before the conflict began.
That changed materially in March. New tenancy registrations fell to 43 contracts, a decline of approximately 29.5% month-on-month. Average rents also dropped to AED 116.88 per sq.ft, down around 6.2% from February.
The weakness intensified in April. Despite the ceasefire from 8 April 2026, The Greens recorded only 31 new tenancy contracts, the lowest monthly total in the reviewed period. Average rents fell further to AED 106.39 per sq.ft, representing a further 9.0% decline from March and a total fall of around 14.6% from February.
The scale of the fall is notable. Between February and April 2026, the number of new leases registered in The Greens dropped from 61 to 31, a reduction of almost 49.2%. Over the same period, average rents declined from AED 124.57 per sq.ft to AED 106.39 per sq.ft.
This suggests that The Greens experienced a double impact: lower leasing volumes and softer agreed rents. In the ten months from May 2025 to February 2026, the community averaged around 71.5 new tenancy contracts per month. In March and April 2026, that monthly average fell to 37 contracts, nearly half the earlier level.
The rent trend also weakened. From May 2025 to February 2026, average rents were approximately AED 117.99 per sq.ft. During March and April, the average fell to around AED 111.64 per sq.ft. More importantly, the direction of travel deteriorated quickly: February marked the peak, March showed a clear correction, and April extended the fall.
Rental markets are influenced by several factors, including seasonality, tenant budgets, landlord pricing expectations, competing supply, and wider economic sentiment. However, the timing of the March reversal is clear. The downturn began immediately after the 28th February escalation, and The Greens did not show a positive post-ceasefire reaction in April.
For landlords in The Greens, the data suggests that pricing expectations may need to be adjusted if they are seeking quick tenant take-up. For tenants, the figures point to a more negotiable market than was evident at the start of 2026. The most significant point is that Aprilโs figures were weak on both volume and price, indicating that the ceasefire had not yet translated into improved leasing confidence in this particular community.
Rents Agreed to New Tenants (not tenancy renewals).
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